[Note: This article was originally written on 1 NOV 2015. The author is finally getting around to publishing it, hoping that he’ll look really smart if it all comes true.]
“Can we really trust Turkey?”
After you’ve bored friends and family with your talk about ISIS, Iran, Russia, China, North Korea and Al-Qaeda, why would you even venture a question about Turkey? (As my wife asks me.) It’s a good question which has, unfortunately, a good answer.
Right now, Turkey is the most feasible trigger for us to go to war.
Turkey is an ally. It’s a member of NATO, it has agreed to support the US effort against ISIS and it has taken in more than 2 million Syrian refugees, which is far more than any other country. Under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey has modernized its economy, bolstered the rights of minorities and even advanced reconciliation with the Kurds.
That’s the good news.
But there is some bad news.